Interest in odds for Hillary to win the Democratic nomination has recently been piqued, having spiked to as high as .10/share in early October, before falling back to .05/share.
Remember, folks, Hillary Clinton is not currently in the running for the nomination.
Some have posited that the bet size limitations which platforms such as PredictIt impose, coupled with exorbitant fees, have distorted the odds.
@kmmunger This is solely a function of PredictIt's $850 limit + 10% fee on profits. Prediction markets (e.g. Betfair) that lack such inefficiencies aren't so distorted.
Curiously enough, several days later, Hillary’s odds spiked again, this time as high as .11/share. This would place her in the top three or four hopefuls for the nomination, again without an official announcement.
Hillary tied with Bernie for 4th
What’s causing this phenomenon? is HRC preparing another run?
Probably not. The spikes seem to correlate with an October 1st speculative bounce around public appearance on The View and another on an October 8th response to a DJT tweet:
@realDonaldTrump Don't tempt me. Do your job.
Following last week’s runup in the Donald Trump first-term impeachment market, odds have plateaued to the low .70s range. This has held despite presidential-hopeful Joe Biden now joining in on the impeachment chorus, as well as a second intelligence official whistleblower coming forward in the alleged pressuring of Ukrainian President Zelensky by Trump into investigating Joe’s son, Hunter’s Ukrainian energy dealings.
Biden, in other news, has maintained a sizeable deficit, currently .27/share, to leader Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Democratic nomination markets. In the same market, Bernie Sanders’ odds have tanked in the wake of his heart attack/hospitalization (get well Bern!).
On the 2020 Presidential election market front, DJT’s lead over Warren has recently ebbed and flowed, currently sitting at a .06 spread of .40/share vs .34/share.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the no-brainer platform for political betting with unbeatable odds, the lowest fees, and the tightest spreads. Get started trading!
@PredictIt: * 5% withdrawal fee * 10% fee on profits * Literally will ban you & freeze your funds if you automate trades @AugurProject * No withdrawal fees, self-custody funds * Small trading fees which go directly to ecosystem * Radically open API Decentralization matters.
This week at Devcon in Osaka, Japan, the team announced the planned rollout of Augur v2, and are one step closer to providing universal access to tools that increase and protect wealth through finance and betting.
Augur’s mission of creating the world’s most accessible, no-limit betting platform is coming to fruition.
read below about the past, present, and future of Augur’s mission of creating the world’s most accessible, no-limit betting platform is coming to fruition:
Below you can watch a short presentation outlining the Q1 2020 release of Augur v1.5 w/ 0x Trading, Augur v2.0 w/ MakerDAO’s Dai, and the forthcoming scaling solution for high throughput and low latency:
Here is the full deck from the presentation:
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Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community that are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes and etc with the larger community via Twitter, Discord, Reddit, Github, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.
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